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FiveThirtyEight

UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO

Democrats are clearly favored to win the House

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.

Average: 236.7

Majority

Majority

221 D

253 D

80% ofoutcomes fallin this range

80% ofoutcomes fallin this range

Morelikely

255

255

235

235

220

220

240

240

260

260

280

280

300

300

320

320

Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 221 and 253 seats.

In 7 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control

In 93 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control

This is our overview of the race to control the House, but if you want to see a specific race, check out the search bar in the top left.

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There are three versions of our congressional forecasts, and this year we’re defaulting to the Deluxe
🎉
version. Click on the magnifying glass to see the others.

Forecasting each House seat

Each party’s chances of winning every House seat

Solid R

≥95% R

Likely R

≥75%

Lean R

≥60%

Toss-up

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