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Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.
Average outcome: 50.5
53 R seats
80% ofoutcomes fallin this range
53 R SEATS
Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats.
In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control
In 58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control
When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
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