P

S

Find a race

FiveThirtyEight

Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.

Average outcome: 50.5

53 R seats

54 D

80% ofoutcomes fallin this range

Morelikely

62

60

58

56

54

52

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

53 R SEATS

7.0% chance

7.0% chance

Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 47 and 54 seats.

In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control

In 58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control

When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.

Want to see other versions of the forecast? Click the magnifying glass in the lower left!

2020 ELECTION COVERAGE

Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election

By Nathaniel Rakich

More And More Americans Aren’t Religious. Why Are Democrats Ignoring These Voters?

By Daniel Cox and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Forecasting each Senate seat

Icon Legend

Solid R

≥95% R

Likely R

≥75%

Lean R

≥60%

Toss-up

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *